Forgetting What Type of Investor I Was

A few people have asked me why I stopped posting on finance. Until this week I didn’t really have a complete¬†answer. Now I think it was because I forgot what type of investor I was. When I forgot, I started losing money. When I started losing money, I started losing interest. All my biggest investment […]

Financial Endgame

I was asked recently why I had not posted any 2012 Financial Predictions. The short answer is that my market timing skills have sucked since the end of 2009 and so I decided to stop doing predictions. It is my opinion that the markets are no longer driven by fundamentals and rule of law. They […]

How To Destroy The Wall Street Banks

There are over 10,000 banks and credit unions in the USA. Having a majority of the business go to four corrupt banks (Bank of America, Citibank, Wells Fargo and Chase) is not healthy for an economy. Want to destroy them? Read on. Step 1 – Educate Yourself What did the big Wall Street banks do […]

The Age of Deleveraging

I just finished reading a book from one of my financial mentors. The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation is by A. Gary Shilling. Back when I used to spend hours every day watching the clowns on CNBC pump their fists about how great everything was, there were […]

2011 Financial Predictions

I wasn’t going to post my 2011 Financial Predictions given how horrific my 2010 ones were. Then I thought about it and decided to go forth for a few reasons. Even though 2010 was awful for me, I did call the entire 2008-2009 market crash. Prior to that I sold my house in San Diego […]

Reasons I’m Still Bearish

Call me a perma-bear if you must. I prefer to think of myself as a contrarian. The consensus in the main financial press is that we are in recovery and the stock market will continue rising into 2011. I’d love to join the cheerleaders, but I still see things different. Debts Are Too High – […]

Reviewing My 2010 Financial Predicitions

Boy I blew it bad this year. We still have 3 trading days left in the year, but I’m throwing in the towel now. I could make excuses or tell you that I’m early, but I won’t. Let’s review my 2010 Financial Predictions. Recovery or Double Dip Recession There is still too much debt in […]

Near Heart Attack

Earlier this morning I received an email from TD Ameritrade saying that my account had a negative balance. My face got numb and stomach tightened. No! No! It had been a few weeks since I last logged on. What happened? Quickly, I logged in and saw that both of my Ameritrade accounts had the balances […]

My 401k Advice to the Unemployed

I’ve probably said something similar in the past, but I want to be clear about how I would invest my 401k if I recently lost my job. My strategy is based off hedging risk. The primary risks an unemployed worker with a retirement account faces is that they won’t get a job and that the […]

Vindication

In 2005 I watched the real estate craze from a front row seat in San Diego. My home value rocketed up to insane levels. Those with homes were drunk with excitement on how much money their home was worth. I got suspicious, just like I got suspicious during the craze of the dot-com days. After […]

The Fitness Finance Analogy Updated

Over the past 15 years I’ve been known to say something like this: Weight training is like a 401k. You don’t see the results right away, but over time they add up. Cardio is like a weekly paycheck. When the week is over, you no longer continue to accumulate benefits. Given that I know more […]

Oil Prices – Here We Go Again

It is starting to look like 2008 again. Remember then? The economy was tanking and demand for oil was dropping, but somehow the traders on Wall Street were able to push oil to $147/bbl. They figured out a way to pump a bubble in oil just as the housing and stock market bubbles were popping. […]

Roger Lowenstein Coming to Seattle

My favorite financial writer Roger Lowenstein is coming to Seattle. On Monday April 12th, he will be giving a 90 minute lecture at Town Hall Seattle. Since a few of my readers live in Seattle and have an interest in finance, I thought I’d tell you about this event. I’ve already bought my ticket. Details […]

Before Racing Back to College To Pile On More Debt

I know several people that are using the recession as an opportunity to pile up more student loans and get yet another college degree. Most are intelligent and qualified to do whatever they want, but think they are incapable because more and more professions now are requesting additional or specialized degrees. There is some truth […]

My 2010 Financial Predictions

Not that anyone should care what I think, but I’m still bearish. I wish I could wake up one morning, review the data and become bullish, but I can’t. History tells us that true bull markets never start from valuations this high and that investor confidence is never restored until an effort has been made […]

Time For Another Stock Market Crash?

I saw leaves falling from the trees today. Are we getting close to a stock market correction? The market is WAY overvalued. From Dave Rosenberg today: The trailing price-earnings ratio on operating EPS is 26.5x. At the October 2007 highs, it was 18.8x. In addition, when the S&P 500 is trading north of a 26x […]

Freeing Up More Money For Coffee

Yeah, I may be peeved at the increasing prices of coffee these days, but I am still loyal to the bean. On September 1st my gym membership expired and they didn’t offer me any deals, so I left. What if I could liberate the $30 I was spending each month to lift weights and instead […]

Revisiting the Simplest Investing Rule

In the post Making The Simplest Investing Rule Even More Simple, I explained a rule for monitoring the S&P 500 weekly moving averages to spot buy and sell signals for long term investors. The rule comes from Karl Denninger at Market Ticker. When the 20 WMA passes the 50 WMA by 1%, you buy into […]

Why America Wins

With a growing number of people dissing America these days, I thought I’d take the contrarian position and explain why America wins. Before I list the reasons, I think we need to explain what it means to win. To win is to be better the competition. It doesn’t mean things are getting better, because they […]

Secret Ways to Save Money With AT&T and Vonage

My phone bill was too much, so I decided to do something about it. I have a cell phone that uses AT&T Wireless and a land line with Vonage. From a quality and service standpoint, I am satisfied with both companies. Because I don’t use my phones much, I felt was paying too much each […]

The Millionaire Next Door

I was going through posts on my old blog and uncovered this financial book review. It was written in October 2004, which was a time when using leverage to flip condos was cool and saving money was boring. Boy have times changed. The Millionaire Next Door is by Thomas J. Stanley. From October 2004: I […]

California Shrugged

I really don’t know why this news story isn’t getting more attention. The Peoples Republic of California is now paying state vendors with IOUs. These same state vendors do not have a clear path to convert these IOUs into money to meet payroll and other expenses. The same banks that defrauded the state for years […]

Eye of the Hurricane

I haven’t done a financial post in a while. There are a few reasons. My interests have moved. In addition to my new websiteCoffee Hero, I am also now researching nutrition and fitness with the same intensity I did for real estate in 2005-2006 and the stock market in 2007-2008. My thesis has not changed. […]

The Fat Tail

Last month I attended a lecture by Ian Bremmer about political risk and financial markets. It was interesting enough to inspire me to read his book. The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing by Ian Bremmer will be helpful to investors that wish to understand political risk. The book is full […]

My Reaction To What Bernanke Did Today

When I heard The Federal Reserve was going buy Treasuries (aka Quantitative Easing), I couldn’t help think of the final scene in The Planet of the Apes. You maniacs! You blew it up! God damn you! God damn you all to hell! Over on TickerForum.org, someone asked how to explain Quantitative Easing to the average […]

When Fitness and Finance Intersect

Over the past month I’ve noticed my Glitter Gym has become less crowded. Each week I see less and less people. There are less members around in the mornings, late afternoons and even the weekend. Many of the people that go to my Glitter Gym hire personal trainers. When times are tough, people cut back […]

Not As Short As I Used To Be

At the beginning of the year I listed 633 as my 2009 target for the S &P 500. We came close to that last week. My plan all along has been to lighten up on my short positions as I get close to that target. On Friday, I reduced my short exposure from 90.1% to […]

Debt and Leverage

In the article Wall Street on the Tundra, financial writer Michael Lewis is able to brilliantly summarize the roots of the economic meltdown in just three sentences. When you borrow a lot of money to create a false prosperity, you import the future into the present. It isnt the actual future so much as some […]

Making The Simplest Investing Rule Even More Simple

Last April, I highlighted Karl Denninger’s amazingly simple rule for ordinary long term investors. Using his rule, long term investors would have sold their stocks and moved to fixed income back in January 2008 when the S & P 500 was at 1350. From The Simplest Investing Rule: His rule which he learned from his […]

Santa Claus Rally – Hope You Got Out

From Christmas through the New Years, I told several people that stayed fully invested in the stock market that they received a holiday gift. That gift was the Santa Claus Rally. It was a wonderful chance to exit long positions and minimize the damage caused in October and November. The Santa Claus Rally as defined […]

Will The Housing Crisis Start a Civil War?

Catchy title, eh? I exaggerate, but there definitely is an undercurrent of hostility between different parties in the housing crisis. When I posted Mr. Microsoft vs Seattle Billy, the comments exploded. Some of the commenters were justifiably irate with Mr. Microsoft for deciding to walk away from his mortgage. Then President Obama announced his mortgage […]

The Next Round of Real Estate Price Drops

Last September in the post Another Reason Real Estate Prices Will Drop Further, I outlined how the banks that got burned by easy lending would be forced to tighten their lending. At the time of the post, Fannie and Freddie were moving to a 10% down payment requirement. It has only been a few months […]

Instead of Makin’ Me Better, You Keep Me Makin’ Me Ill

Yesterday I stumbled across a ridiculous article on Yahoo! Finance called Retirement Guide for 20- and 30-Somethings. It was provided by SmartMoney and sponsored by Fidelity. Gee I wonder what their expert financial advice is at this time? Let me guess. They want you to be fully invested in the market. Both Fidelity and SmartMoney […]

Mr. Microsoft vs Seattle Billy

Some of my readers are already familiar with Seattle Billy. For those that missed those posts, here is all you need to know. Bought a condo conversation at the absolute top of the Seattle real estate market. He used an exotic loan to buy the place. He was laid off 3 months ago. He can’t […]

An Update on Seattle Billy

Back in March, I posted an entry called The Financial Wisdom of Seattle Billy. He is a likable guy, but when it comes to financial decisions, he is the perfect gauge of what not to do. From that post: Billy is a college graduate working a white-collar job. Billy is also a financial idiot and […]

Timing the Stock Market

I am not into Technical Analysis, nor do I care to be. My financial thesis is based off of valuations and statistics. Timing the daily or weekly movement is not something I am equipped to do. This means that although I believe the direction of the indexes will go down this year, I do not […]

I Just Woke Up From A Fuzzy Dream

I’ve bashed company managed 401Ks in the past. Now it feels like I’m kicking a corpse. Let me get one final punch in. Today I received the year end statement for my company 401K. When I say “my company”, I mean the one I worked for from January 2002 – May 2006 and again from […]

Simple Math Says Get Out of the Stock Market

I want to expand on my 2009 Financial Prediction for the S&P 500. By the end of 2009 it will hit 633. This estimate is based solely off earnings ($42.26 x PE of 15). Where did that $42.26 number come from? It is a collection of earnings estimates. Here is a graph that appeared in […]

2009 Financial Predictions

Here are my 2009 Financial Predictions. My general thesis is: Cash is King If You’re Long You’re Wrong. S&P 500 – By the end of 2009 it will hit 633. This estimate is based solely off earnings ($42.26 x PE of 15). That is a conservative number. If you use a 12 PE, the number […]

Jim Cramer, Me and One Week in July

On July 30th, CNBC’s Jim Cramer told his viewers: Yes, The Market Has Bottomed. I am indeed sticking my neck out right here, right now, declaring emphatically that I believe the market will not revisit the panicked lows it hit on July 15. And I think anyone out there whos waiting for that low to […]

Anatomy of a Good Trade

A few days ago I posted Anatomy of a Bad Trade, where I openly discussed the worst stock trade I ever did and the lessons I learned. This week I had a picture perfect trade, where I followed my rules and exited a position with a huge gain. My rules: Look for beaten down UltraShort […]

Anatomy of a Bad Trade

Occasionally I serve up a post on my investing successes. Now let me tell you about the worst trade I ever made and the lessons I learned. On January 3, 2008, on the post My Drudge Report Oil Short Investment Tip, I wrote: Ive noticed over the past few years that whenever a barrel of […]

The Lack of Trust in the New World Economy

I live in a nice apartment building in an upscale area of Seattle. This week I noticed fliers posted around the building announcing a contest. They are having a $100 drawing each month for residents that pay their rent on time. I had to inquire. Me: I don’t understand the contest. Didn’t the residents sign […]

The Softening Seattle Rental Market

Yeah, home prices are falling. That is old news. I’m more interested in what is going on in the rental market. When I went looking for a rental unit back in May, there was little offered and the prices were somewhat higher than I would have liked. Photo For Rent – Reduced??!! by Flickr user […]

Not Stocks and Not Real Estate Part 2

In Not Stocks and Not Real Estate Part 1, I threw out the idea that the next bull market might not be in stocks or real estate. What will the next bull market be in? I have some smart readers that I hope will add comments to this post, but I’d like to kick off […]

Not Stocks and Not Real Estate Part 1

One of the hottest topics in finance and real estate is calling a bottom. Whether you believe the bottom is now or much lower, investors all seem eager to get in at the bottom. And this makes sense. Why buy today what you can get for cheaper in the future? Something is bothering me about […]

He Bought At The Bottom

I love talking to people about investing. Listening to what people are doing and how they interpret the financial news is very helpful to me. Being a contrarian has been profitable to me. In the last month, I’ve talked to several people about the stock market. Here are some of the things I’ve heard. I […]

Oil Hits $55

A year ago it seemed everyone thought oil would keep going up in price. I heard predictions for $200 and even $300 a barrel. Would would have guessed one year ago that oil would be down to $55? That would be me. From my 2008 Predictions post on MarketTicker on 12/27/2007: OIL = $55 President […]

You Hit It Once, Then Break Away Clean

Some guys go fishing and have fishing tales. I don’t fish. I invest. Here is my tale. Across the field of battered stocks was EEV. EEV is an UltraShort of the Emerging Markets. I know I said I wouldn’t touch the ultra-shorts because of the counterparty risk, but I couldn’t resist. The stock had dropped […]

Not a Certified Financial Planner

Since I have quite a few posts on investing, I thought it was appropriate that I add a disclaimer. I am not a Certified Financial Planner. I’m just a regular Joe with an interest in economics. Although I have a Finance degree from the diploma mill known as The Ohio State University, everything that I […]

Financial Logic Fails

This weekend I talked to several people regarding the current state of the markets. They all remembered that I had called for this correction and advised moving their money into fixed income. Most didn’t take my warning and lost a lot of money in their 401k account. But that was yesterday, let’s talk about today. […]

Picking a New S&P 500 Target

Back when the S&P 500 was much higher, I announced my target for this index was 1000. From my July 15, 2008 post Shooting the Messenger: I see the S&P 500 dropping to 1000 by the end of the year. The P/E ratio is still too high as corporate profits are declining. I plan on […]

Investing 101 – The 401K

In the post Investing 101 – Before You Invest, I gave my thoughts on how I approach post-tax investing. Now I want to cover the other side, which is pre-tax investing in a 401K or similar plan. Many workers are down big time in their 401K this year. Although it sucks to take a big […]

Investing 101 – The Biggest Lesson

This post is a follow-up to Investing 101 – Before You Invest. The biggest lesson I’ve learned in the last few years is what I call the Baby Boomer Lie. I’ve covered this on other posts, so forgive me for repeating it. Baby Boomers were fortunate enough to enter their high income years early in […]

Investing 101 – Before You Invest

Considering last week was my most profitable week ever investing, it wasn’t surprising that a few people approached me with questions on investing. It should be noted that although I’m doing great right now, I was dead wrong on equities in 2006 and oil in early 2008. I’m not an investment professional, nor do I […]

Walk Away and Taste the Pain, Come Again Some Other Day

On Monday when the market crashed, I was away from my computer. I missed the entire event. In fact I was having lunch with Market Man from the Geldpress, who is also bearish on the market. While most investors had their ass handed to them, my portfolio set a single day record. Of course a […]

Can I Have Another Piece of Chocolate Cake?

How does the bailout change my outlook on investing in the next year? Not much. Kirk on Reasons Unbeknowst asked this question in the post The Most Predictable Meltdown in History: Would you rather get punched in the nose hard once or would you prefer a good slap in the face every morning for a […]

Trying to Understand George Soros

Although I could care less about what George Soros thinks politically, I do have an interest in understanding how his mind works when it comes to investing. George Soros is a legendary investor that has made billions. One characteristic I’ve learned he has is the ability to immediately divorce himself from all prior positions and […]

And Here Is What Happened When They Decided To Cut Loose

Something about the proposed Paulson $700 Billion bailout doesn’t seem right. You have very smart people making sound arguments against it, but I’m starting to wonder if there is another motive behind the bailout. I can’t help but think of Law 3 from the book The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene: Law 3 […]

Watching Wall Street and Waiting

Saturday evening I posted As Soon As I Get My Head, which summarized my thoughts and concerns on what might happen in a post-Paulson bailout world. Even though I’m hedged to profit from a stock market decline or crash, nobody is protected if we have a total banking collapse. I had a bad night sleep […]

As Soon As I Get My Head Round You

All day long I’ve reading, researching and thinking about Paulson’s No Banker Left Behind Plan and what is going to happen to the economy. This post isn’t about the guilty parties that got us in this bailout mess or why this plan is a going to be a disaster. Instead I want to try and […]

My Counter Party Is Over

Back in March, I wrote one of the most popular posts on this site titled Ultra ETFs and Counterparty Risk. It is a long detailed post where I outlined my concern that if a seismic shock to the financial world hit, I wouldn’t be completely confident that leveraged ETFs would survive. Today AIG was bailed […]

Another Reason Real Estate Prices Will Drop Further

In the post Irrational on the Way Up, Rational on the Way Down?, I touched on the psychology of would be home buyers that watch prices drop faster than they can save money. Saving money and delaying purchase will become more and more popular. Meanwhile the inventories of unsold homes will continue to increase. Besides […]

Irrational on the Way Up, Rational on the Way Down?

I’m continually amazed on how otherwise intelligent people fail to learn the lessons of history. Whenever an asset class gets into an inflated bubble, the bubble does top out and the blowback is a bitch. Prices do not settle to fair market. They overshoot. Home prices will not settle gracefully to fair market values. They […]

Funny Finance Book

OK it isn’t a true finance book, but it is one hysterical read. Dave Barry’s Money Secrets: Like: Why Is There a Giant Eyeball on the Dollar? by Dave Barry makes fun of the everyman economic advice handed out by the likes of Suze Orman. You will laugh until you cry. This is an outstanding […]

Financial Book Picks

In the last few years I’ve read quite a few books that are related to finance. Here are my favorites broken down by sub-genre. Basic Investing Bull’s Eye Investing: Targeting Real Returns in a Smoke and Mirrors Market by John F. Mauldin is my pick for the average person that wants to invest in the […]

Won The Lottery Revisited

On March 9th, 2006 after receiving the money from the sale of my house in San Diego County, I wrote in the post Won The Lottery : Yesterday, I received the money for the sale of that house. It was A LOT of money. The amount of profit was insane. I am another winner in […]

Financial History Repeating Itself

Back in March I reviewed a financial history book called Devil Take the Hindmost. In that post I listed how America 2008 was starting to look like Japan 1990. One of the items I mentioned was in regards to accounting. 2. Central bankers turned a blind eye to banks that wouldnt write down bad debt. […]

Hope Your 401K is in Fixed Income

Three months I mentioned in the post Mr. Financial Planner – Go Home and Get Your Shine Box! how 100% of my company-managed 401K was in the Fixed Income fund. The statement lists the returns for all the investment options I had at my disposal. My Cash Fixed Fund earned just a 0.97% return. But […]

Shooting The Messenger

Don’t blame me. It isn’t my fault your home price is plummeting, your 401K is getting rocked and your bank is in trouble. I’m just a student of financial history and saw things differently than the bubble-heads on CNBC. I still have a lot to learn and I’m often wrong (oil). However, it is starting […]

True Job Insurance Means Shorting Your Own Company Part 2

After posting True Job Insurance Means Shorting Your Own Company earlier this week I realized it raised some questions that weren’t answered in the post. DHammy stated accurately: I think its unlikely anyone is going to follow this advice. People just arent able to see how big that gap is between what they know and […]

IndyMAC Is Gone, Who Warned Ya?

On 3/17/2008 I posted IndyMac I’m Never Coming Back. IndyMac has the lowest rating a bank can receive with Safe and Sound ratings. After seeing Bear Stearns implode in days, I didnt need much encouragement to close that account out immediately. Then on 7/2/2008, I followed it up with IndyMAC – Dead Bank Walking? Tonight […]

True Job Insurance Means Shorting Your Own Company

For years I’ve jokingly stated the number one investment rule is to: Never invest in a company that would hire you or one of your friends. Although this gets a laugh, there is some truth to this advice. Employees of a company are typically only told one side of the financial story. News about every […]

More Than You Know

Over the past three years I’ve read many financial books across various subtopics. Although I had intended to take a break from the finance books, I couldn’t pass up a chance to read this book. More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places (Updated and Expanded) by Michael J. Mauboussin for me was […]

IndyMAC – Dead Bank Walking?

This March in the post IndyMac Im Never Coming Back, I wrote how as soon as my CD matured I closed out my account. This morning my CD with IndyMac bank matured. IndyMac has the lowest rating a bank can receive with Safe and Sound ratings. After seeing Bear Stearns implode in days, I didnt […]

Buying Individual Stocks Doesn’t Math Out For Me

In a post earlier this week TheTailGunner posted his success buying individual stocks since 2004. From The Market has been good to me: On July 16th, 2004, I opened this account with $11,107.66. As of some time today, the account is currently worth $26,869.12. That’s an increase of almost 240% in less than 4 years. […]

I Wouldn’t Bank There

There is a bank that is popular with many people here in Seattle. It even has our state name in its name. Well a few of my mutual friends have heard my reasons why I’d move my money to a different bank. Here they are: The bank has a BankRate.com Star rating of 2 out […]

While America Aged

I lived in San Diego during their pension crisis a few years ago. The story was confusing and never held any interest with me. Boring. Change the channel. So why would I read a book about the dull topic of pensions? Because it was written by Roger Lowenstein. He may be the best writer of […]

My Take on the Barbell Investment Strategy

In the post Meet Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I dropped in this quote without adding any comments. the good investment strategy is to put 90% of your money in the safest possible government securities and the remaining 10% in a large number of high-risk ventures. This insulates you from bad black swans and exposes you to […]

Meet Nassim Nicholas Taleb

I rarely link to or discuss articles from newspapers, but I must make an exception. The Times Online has an outstanding profile titled Nassim Nicholas Taleb: the prophet of boom and doom. Read it. Taleb wrote the books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, which I reviewed on this site. Both are outstanding and […]

Mr. Financial Planner – Go Home and Get Your Shine Box!

Last September when I restarted my 401K plan at my company I put 100% of my investment in the Cash Fixed Fund account. This sparked a conversion with a financial planner, who felt he could show me the errors of my way. He didn’t know who he was taking to. After repeating the industry lie, […]

The Simplest Investing Rule

Karl Denninger has some excellent advice for regular investors on how they can outperform the stock market indexes with minimal research and minimal trades. His rule which he learned from his Chicago days is to compare the 20 Week Moving Average to the 50 Week Moving Average. When the 20 WMA passes the 50 WMA […]

Secular Bear Market or Range Bound?

Although there are several good sources on the Internet for financial and economic information, if I had to pick my favorite it would be John Mauldin’s newsletter. The newsletter is free and is sent out twice a week, with John usually writing the Friday edition. You can sign-up for his newsletter at 2000wave.com. The most […]

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

A pal of mine recently told me that I should read the 1922 investing classic: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Wiley Investment Classics) by Edwin Lefvre is as relevant today as it was in the 1920s. The book is a collection of interviews with the fictitious Lawrence Livingston, which later […]

Is MacroShares Ready For Primetime?

The company MacroShares offers two ETFs where you can bet on the direction of the price of oil. Back in January I posted My Drudge Report Oil Short Investment Tip. Using that information I was able to use the MacroShares DCR ticker to make a few thousand dollars on quick trades. Yesterday I received tax […]

Devil Take the Hindmost

After reading this book, I’m convinced that humans are programmed to not learn from history. Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation by Edward Chancellor covers financial speculation from Tulip Mania through the LTCM crisis of 1998. The book was published prior to the dot-com crash. Even though I found the early chapters […]

The Financial Wisdom of Seattle Billy

Last fall I meet a good hearted nice fellow named Billy. Actually that is not his real name. I’m protecting his real name. Billy is a college graduate working a white-collar job. Billy is also a financial idiot and to me that is what makes him interesting. Billy bought a condo at the absolute peak […]

Picking a Real Estate Bottom

Every so often I’ll get asked when I am going to buy a house again. My response is not until after prices bottom. This is when I’m asked to give a date prediction. It’s not that easy. Instead of picking a future date, I have a rule set that will be my guideline. Supply of […]

Fooled By Randomness

Last year I read The Black Swan. At times it was a difficult read, but it was outstanding. It’s clear to me now that I should have read the author’s previous book Fooled by Randomness first. In a word this book was stellar. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in […]

Bear Market Investing

I’ve received some emails regarding my recent post Ultra ETFs and Counterparty Risk. People are interested and amazed to learn there are ways to make money as the stock market drops. It used to be that one needed to short stocks directly or buy put calls in order to profit from a declining stock market. […]

IndyMac I’m Never Coming Back

Last month in my post Ignore My Financial Advice, I said: 6- Only Bank with the Best. Unless you’ve avoided the news for the past few months, then you are aware there are some banking shenanigans going on. Some banks have lots of toxic loans on their books. Banks can and will fail. Even though […]

Ultra ETFs and Counterparty Risk

In a few previous posts, I mentioned using leveraged ETFs as an investment tool. If you own any shares of ProShares, ProFunds or Rydex leveraged funds, keep reading. The rest of you are free to go recess early today. This weekend I read the prospectus for all three companies providing leveraged ETFs. A leveraged ETF […]

Investing in Stocks For the Long Term?

In my post Ignore My Financial Advice, one of my tips was to read financial history. One aspect of financial history I’d like to address is this baby-boomer nonsense that the stock market always goes up in the long term. I guess that depends on what you consider the long term. Before anyone invests in […]

The Origins of the Crash

One of my favorite genres of reading is financial history and nobody does a better job than Roger Lowenstein. Origins of the Crash: The Great Bubble and Its Undoing by Roger Lowenstein takes you through the economic history leading up and covering the stock market crash of 2000-2002. This book is outstanding and I enjoyed […]