The Next 100 Years

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George Friedman writes the occasional article for John Mauldin’s outstanding financial newsletter on topics of geopolitics. He is an engaging and thoughtful writer, so I knew I had to read his new book.

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman is my first book dealing with long term political forecasting. I really enjoyed it.

Friedman mixed history, culture, geography, technology patterns and demographic changes into all his forecasts. I expect the forecasting to be more accurate in the early part of the 21st century and to become less accurate in the later part, as the later forecasts are often dependent on the earlier forecasts.

What countries will be moving up in economic and military power in the 21st century?

  1. USA – Having complete naval control over the planet is an advantage no other country has. Our navy is larger and more powerful than all other Navies combined.
  2. Japan – Friedman predicts Japan will be the dominant Asian power, not China.
  3. Turkey – Turkey is posed to become the most powerful country in the Islamic world.
  4. Poland – Russia will make another attempt for power before imploding. Poland will receive massive amounts of military and technological aid from America. That will help it thwart Russia and become an economic force.
  5. Mexico – As Europe ages, Mexico will continue to benefit from its close relationship to the USA.

I’m not going to give away the entire book, but I will say he makes a strong case for why China will not be the dominant power that everyone expects them to be. I recommend this book. There is a science “fiction” section in the middle that involved a lunar attack that although unbelievable was very entertaining.

4 thoughts on “The Next 100 Years

  1. dhammy

    Most so-called experts can’t predict what will happen next year much less what’s down the line 10 years or more. It might be an interesting yarn but there’s more than a bit of hubris to putting out a book like this.

    And, yes, I’m just as qualified to rush to judgement about his book (without reading it) as this guy is to predict the future 😉

  2. He does address your concern. So even if Japan isn’t the dominant Asian power, he makes a strong case that there will be one and that will mold relationships with the USA, which has naval control over the Pacific.

    More than just forecasts, he goes through the thought process on how predictions are formed. This is a valuable tool.

  3. Ed

    I see a lack of forsight in his forecast since England wasn’t mentioned. Historically they have been number one when it comes to geo-politics. I still think they will play a major roll when the chips fall due to their mastery at administration in setting up governments and kings,borders etc…and their unique relationship with the U.S.

    I agree China won’t be a dominant player except maybe in asia some way, for various reasons.

  4. Excellent point.

    He also never mentioned Africa, Central America, Australia and New Zealand. His coverage of South America was no more than a few sentences.

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